Opinion et stratégies d'entreprises Consumer Services Santé Media et numérique Luxe

2012.10.05

American public opinion and the 2012 presidential election

In 2008 Barack Obama swept triumphantly into the White House on a wave of enthusiasm buoyed up by promises of change (change we can believe in), of hope, and of self-confidence (yes we can) which he successfully embodied during the electoral campaign.

The heavy defeat of his rival John McCain and the subsequent emergence of the Tea Party movement plunged the Republican Party into disarray that proved short-lived, as it regained control of Congress at the following midterm elections in 2010 .
These midterm elections constituted a historic defeat for the Presidential party. The Democrats lost a total of 64 seats in the House of Representatives, the heaviest defeat at the midterm elections for the party in power since 1938. In the Senate, the Republicans gained 6 seats without any losses.
This electoral disaster on the part of the Democrats can be largely attributed to the sluggish economic situation on the one hand and controversy over reform of the health care system, dubbed Obamacare, on the other. But this overwhelming veto can also be interpreted as the expression of a form of disenchantment with President Obama, felt all the more sharply as expectations were high.

Two years after this electoral reversal, what do the polls reveal about the state of American public opinion a few weeks before the Presidential election of the 6th November 2012? Will voters confirm the rejection of Barack Obama expressed 2 years ago?

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